Dear Friends and Supporters,
This morning, the online blog Civil Beat released the results of another one of its mainland “robo-polls,” which showed drastically different results than did the well-respected local pollsters Qmark and Ward Research.
As we mentioned in an earlier email, “Robo-polling,” also known as “interactive voice response polling,” is a technique where people give their responses by pressing buttons on their telephone, rather than speaking to a live operator. “Robo-polling” has a number of technical and legal limitations – for example, “robo-polls” are prohibited from calling cell phones, and there is no way to confirm if the respondents are actually voters. Many national institutions frown upon the use of “robo-polling” due to concerns over their reliability and accuracy.
The New York Times, the country’s largest metropolitan newspaper, does not accept the results of any “robo-polls,” stating bluntly that “results of this type of poll are not reliable.” NBC News has stated that its “standard is to generally use polls that are done with live callers, not ones that are automated.” The same has been true for The Associated Press, The Washington Post, and ABC News.
Polls are designed to take a “snapshot” of the voters by gauging the feelings of a smaller sample that is representative of the voting population at-large in terms of demographics like age, sex, education level, ethnicity, etc. A mere glance at the demographics of those questioned in Civil Beat’s “robo-poll” shows how skewed and unbalanced their results truly are.
Among the 577 people they asked:
- 51% were Caucasian, compared to roughly 28% of the likely Democratic voting population overall
- Only 17% were Japanese, compared to roughly 28% of the likely Democratic voting population overall
- Only 10% were Hawaiian, compared to roughly 18% of the likely Democratic voting population overall
- Only 5% were Filipino, compared to roughly 15% of the likely Democratic voting population overall
- Similarly, only 8% of their respondents were under the age of 40, another statistic which doesn’t match the likely Democratic electorate.
All of the latest polls conducted by local firms, which are familiar with Hawaii’s unique and diverse electorate, show Mufi Hannemann with a healthy lead. The Hawaii News Now/Honolulu Star-Advertiser “Hawaii Poll” showed Mufi Hannemann with a 10 point margin, a fact mirrored by Qmark Research in its latest poll.
Recently, it was also reported that one of our opponents’ mainland special interest groups contributed another $51,000, bringing the total to over half a million in outside special interest money that they are using against us. You can expect that in the next several days, even more misinformation and innuendos will be issued by our opponent and her surrogates. Please keep visiting our website and view our ad in today’s Star-Advertiser to help clear up some of these falsehoods.
With just one week to go, the momentum in this race is clearly on our side. Throughout this campaign, we’ve earned the endorsement of elected officials, dozens of labor organizations; and just this past Friday, we’ve received the support of Patsy Mink’s brother, Eugene Takemoto, who endorsed Mazie Hirono in 2006 for this seat. Last week, we also won the backing of another prestigious business organization, the Hawaii Island Contractors Association.
The final endorsement we need, of course, is yours. Please make sure that you, your friends, your family, and your neighbors vote in the Democratic primary on August 11. To find your polling place, please visit the Office of Elections website at http://hawaii.gov/elections.
It’s time to send Mufi Hannemann, the experienced leader we need, to Washington, D.C. so he can build a better future for our state and our nation.
Mahalo nui loa,
The Team at Hannemann for Congress